---
title: "Introduction to MacroFilters"
output: rmarkdown::html_vignette
vignette: >
  %\VignetteIndexEntry{Introduction to MacroFilters}
  %\VignetteEngine{knitr::rmarkdown}
  %\VignetteEncoding{UTF-8}
---

```{r, include = FALSE}
knitr::opts_chunk$set(
  collapse = TRUE,
  comment  = "#>",
  fig.width  = 7,
  fig.height = 4.5,
  out.width  = "100%"
)
```

```{r setup, message=FALSE}
library(MacroFilters)
library(ggplot2)
data("fr_gdp", package = "MacroFilters")
data("es_gdp", package = "MacroFilters")
```

---

## 1. Introduction: Trend-Cycle Decomposition

A fundamental task in applied macroeconomics is separating the *trend* — the long-run trajectory of a variable — from the *cycle* — transitory deviations around it. This decomposition underpins business-cycle analysis, the output gap, and potential GDP estimation.

Every series can be written as:

$$
y_t = \tau_t + c_t
$$

where $\tau_t$ is the trend and $c_t$ is the cyclical component. The challenge is that any filter must decide whether an unusual observation represents a *genuine shock to the trend* or a *transitory deviation that belongs in the cycle*.

### The outlier problem

Classical filters minimise squared loss. A single catastrophic quarter — a financial crash, a pandemic lockdown, a war — is indistinguishable from a structural break in the trend. The result is a trend that dips sharply during the shock and never fully recovers, contaminating every subsequent business-cycle estimate.

**MacroFilters** solves this with the `mbh_filter()` function, which uses Huber loss to automatically down-weight extreme observations while fitting a smooth trend via gradient boosting.

---

## 2. Input Agnosticism: Bring Your Own Class

Many filter packages force you to convert data to a specific time-series class before calling them. **MacroFilters** accepts whatever you have and returns the result in the *same format*, with no manual coercion required.

Supported input classes:

| Class | Package | Example |
|---|---|---|
| `numeric` | base R | `c(100, 102, 98, ...)` |
| `ts` | base R | `ts(y, start = c(2000, 1), frequency = 4)` |
| `xts` | xts | `xts(y, order.by = dates)` |
| `zoo` | zoo | `zoo(y, order.by = dates)` |

### Example: same filter, two input formats

```{r input-agnosticism}
set.seed(7)
y_raw <- cumsum(rnorm(60)) + (1:60) * 0.3   # a simple integrated series

# As plain numeric
hp_num <- hp_filter(y_raw)
class(hp_num$trend)   # numeric

# As a monthly ts object
y_ts   <- ts(y_raw, start = c(2019, 1), frequency = 12)
hp_ts  <- hp_filter(y_ts)
class(hp_ts$trend)    # ts — output matches input
```

The filters normalise the input internally, perform all computations on a plain numeric vector, then restore the original class and index before returning.

---

## 3. The Filter Arsenal

### 3.1 `hp_filter()` — Sparse Hodrick-Prescott

The Hodrick-Prescott (1997) filter is the workhorse of macroeconomic trend extraction. It solves the penalised least-squares problem:

$$
\min_{\tau} \sum_{t=1}^{n}(y_t - \tau_t)^2 + \lambda \sum_{t=2}^{n-1}[(\tau_{t+1} - \tau_t) - (\tau_t - \tau_{t-1})]^2
$$

The second term penalises curvature in the trend; $\lambda$ controls the smoothness.

Most implementations solve this by inverting a dense $n \times n$ matrix, which is $O(n^3)$. **MacroFilters** recognises that the penalty matrix $D'D$ is *pentadiagonal* (a sparse banded structure) and solves the system using `Matrix::bandSparse()` and sparse Cholesky factorisation — bringing the cost down to **O(n)** in time and memory.

```{r hp-filter}
set.seed(42)
n  <- 100
y  <- ts(100 + 0.4 * (1:n) + 5 * sin(2 * pi * (1:n) / 20) + rnorm(n, sd = 2),
         start = c(2000, 1), frequency = 4)

hp <- hp_filter(y)
hp
```

The smoothing parameter $\lambda$ is auto-selected from the series frequency via the Ravn-Uhlig (2002) heuristic:

$$
\lambda = 6.25 \times \text{freq}^4
$$

which gives $\lambda = 1{,}600$ for quarterly and $\lambda = 129{,}600$ for monthly data — the conventional values. You can override it explicitly: `hp_filter(y, lambda = 1600)`.

```{r hp-plot, echo=FALSE, fig.height=3}
df_hp <- data.frame(
  t     = as.numeric(time(y)),
  data  = as.numeric(y),
  trend = as.numeric(hp$trend),
  cycle = as.numeric(hp$cycle)
)

ggplot(df_hp, aes(x = t)) +
  geom_line(aes(y = data,  colour = "Observed"), linewidth = 0.6, linetype = "dashed") +
  geom_line(aes(y = trend, colour = "Trend"),    linewidth = 1.1) +
  scale_colour_manual(values = c("Observed" = "grey60", "Trend" = "#0072B2")) +
  labs(title = "HP Filter", subtitle = paste0("\u03bb = ", hp$meta$lambda),
       x = "Year", y = "Value", colour = NULL) +
  theme_minimal(base_size = 12) +
  theme(legend.position = "bottom")
```

```{r hp-cycle-plot, echo=FALSE, fig.height=2.8}
ggplot(df_hp, aes(x = t, y = cycle)) +
  geom_hline(yintercept = 0, linetype = "dashed", colour = "grey40") +
  geom_line(colour = "#0072B2", linewidth = 0.8) +
  labs(title = "HP Cycle", x = "Year", y = "Cycle") +
  theme_minimal(base_size = 12)
```

---

### 3.2 `hamilton_filter()` — Regression-Based Alternative

Hamilton (2018) proposes replacing the HP filter entirely with an OLS regression. The idea: project $y_{t+h}$ on a constant and $p$ lags of $y_t$:

$$
y_{t+h} = \alpha_0 + \alpha_1 y_t + \alpha_2 y_{t-1} + \cdots + \alpha_p y_{t-p+1} + c_t
$$

The fitted values form the trend; the residuals form the cycle. The horizon $h$ is set to two years ahead by default (e.g., $h = 8$ quarters), long enough to capture business-cycle variation without filtering it out.

**Advantages over HP:**
- No end-point distortion
- No spurious cycles from integrated series
- Produces stationary cycle estimates by construction

```{r hamilton-filter}
ham <- hamilton_filter(y)      # auto-detects h = 8 for quarterly
ham
```

Note that the first $h + p - 1$ observations of the trend and cycle are `NA`, because there is insufficient history for the regression.

---

### 3.3 `bhp_filter()` — Boosted HP

Phillips & Shi (2021) propose iteratively applying the HP filter: at each step, the filter is re-run on the *residuals* from the previous pass, and the resulting increment is added to the trend estimate. This procedure converges to a trend that better tracks stochastic variation.

$$
\tau^{(m)} = \tau^{(m-1)} + S_\lambda \cdot c^{(m-1)}, \qquad c^{(m)} = y - \tau^{(m)}
$$

where $S_\lambda$ is the HP smoothing operator. Three stopping rules are available:

| Rule | Description |
|---|---|
| `"bic"` (default) | Minimise the Schwarz information criterion |
| `"adf"` | Stop when the cycle passes an Augmented Dickey-Fuller stationarity test |
| `"fixed"` | Run exactly `iter_max` iterations |

```{r bhp-filter}
bhp <- bhp_filter(y, stopping = "bic")
bhp
```

Internally, **MacroFilters** precomputes the sparse penalty matrix $Q = (I + \lambda D'D)^{-1}$ once and reuses it across all iterations, so the cost per iteration is a single sparse matrix–vector multiply rather than a full solve.

---

## 4. The Crown Jewel: `mbh_filter()`

### The Problem with Squared Loss

Every filter above minimises squared residuals. When a pandemic shock drops GDP by 15% in a single quarter, that one observation exerts enormous leverage — it is 100× more influential than a typical quarterly fluctuation. The filter accommodates it by *bending the trend downward*, producing a spurious trend break that infects every subsequent output gap estimate.

### The MBH Solution: Huber Loss + Boosting

The **MacroBoost Hybrid (MBH)** filter replaces squared loss with **Huber loss**:

$$
L_\delta(r) = \begin{cases}
\dfrac{r^2}{2} & |r| \leq \delta \\[6pt]
\delta\!\left(|r| - \dfrac{\delta}{2}\right) & |r| > \delta
\end{cases}
$$

Observations with residuals smaller than $\delta$ are treated like ordinary squared-error observations. Observations with residuals larger than $\delta$ — the structural shocks — contribute only *linearly*, massively reducing their influence on the trend estimate.

### Additive Model

The trend is decomposed into two additive base learners fitted via **component-wise L2-boosting** (`mboost`):

$$
\hat{\tau}_t = \underbrace{b_0 + b_1 \cdot t}_{\text{Global linear drift}} + \underbrace{f(t)}_{\text{Local curvature (P-spline)}}
$$

- **`bols(time, intercept = TRUE)`** — captures the global linear drift.
- **`bbs(time, knots, degree = 3, differences = 2, boundary.knots)`** — a cubic P-spline with `knots` interior knots that captures smooth nonlinear curvature.

The default `knots = max(20, floor(n/2))` is deliberately generous — it gives the spline enough flexibility to follow genuine low-frequency movements without overfitting, while the Huber loss ensures that shock-contaminated quarters are downweighted.

### Parameters

| Parameter | Default | Role |
|---|---|---|
| `knots` | `max(20, n/2)` | P-spline flexibility — higher = more local adaptability |
| `mstop` | `500` | Boosting iterations — more = finer approximation |
| `d` | `NULL (Auto)` | Huber delta — if `NULL`, auto-set via MAD of first differences (scale-invariant) |
| `nu` | `0.2` | Shrinkage / learning rate — controls step size per iteration |
| `boundary.knots` | `NULL` | B-spline domain anchor — if `NULL`, uses `range(time_idx)`; fix to `c(1, T_max)` for real-time vintage stability |

By default, `d` is auto-calibrated using the MAD of the series' first differences, making the filter scale-invariant and suitable for both log-differenced and level series. You can override it with an explicit numeric value: `d = 0.01` is typical for growth rates, while `d = 5` to `d = 20` may be needed for index-level series.

For real-time applications where the sample grows one period at a time,
set `boundary.knots = c(1, T_max)` to anchor the B-spline domain to the
full-sample range — this prevents the basis from shifting between vintages
and makes trends comparable across publication dates.

### Quick example

France and Spain had two of the sharpest COVID-19 contractions in the EU (approximately −14 % and −18 % quarter-on-quarter in 2020 Q2 respectively), both followed by a rapid V-shaped recovery — making them a demanding real-world stress test for any trend filter.

```{r fred-download, eval=FALSE}
# FRED public endpoint — no API key needed.
# See data-raw/intl_gdp.R for the full reproducible download script.
read_fred <- function(id) {
  url <- sprintf("https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=%s", id)
  dt  <- read.csv(url, col.names = c("date", "gdp_real"), na.strings = ".")
  dt$date    <- as.Date(dt$date)
  dt$gdp_log <- log(as.numeric(dt$gdp_real))
  dt[!is.na(dt$gdp_real), ]
}
fr_raw <- read_fred("CLVMNACSCAB1GQFR")
es_raw <- read_fred("CLVMNACSCAB1GQES")
```

```{r mbh-demo}
# Apply HP + MBH per country.
# For log-level series, auto d (MAD of diff) is too tight — calibrate d on the
# cycle scale instead (see vignette "Hyperparameter Tuning for the MBH Filter").
make_trend_df <- function(raw, country) {
  dt  <- raw[raw$date >= as.Date("2000-01-01"), ]
  g   <- ts(dt$gdp_log, start = c(2000, 1), frequency = 4)
  hp  <- hp_filter(g)
  mbh <- mbh_filter(g, d = mad(hp$cycle))
  data.frame(country  = country,
             t        = as.numeric(time(g)),
             observed = as.numeric(g),
             hp       = as.numeric(hp$trend),
             mbh      = as.numeric(mbh$trend))
}

df_plot <- rbind(
  make_trend_df(fr_gdp, "France"),
  make_trend_df(es_gdp, "Spain")
)

# Keep Spain filter objects for the S3 class examples in Section 5
dt_es   <- es_gdp[es_gdp$date >= as.Date("2000-01-01"), ]
gdp     <- ts(dt_es$gdp_log, start = c(2000, 1), frequency = 4)
hp_res  <- hp_filter(gdp)
mbh_res <- mbh_filter(gdp, d = mad(hp_res$cycle))

mbh_res
```

```{r mbh-plot, echo=FALSE}
ggplot(df_plot, aes(x = t)) +
  geom_line(aes(y = observed, colour = "Observed"),  linewidth = 0.6, linetype = "dashed") +
  geom_line(aes(y = hp,       colour = "HP trend"),  linewidth = 1.0) +
  geom_line(aes(y = mbh,      colour = "MBH trend"), linewidth = 1.1) +
  annotate("rect",
           xmin = 2020.00, xmax = 2020.75,
           ymin = -Inf, ymax = Inf,
           alpha = 0.12, fill = "firebrick") +
  annotate("text",
           x = 2020.375, y = Inf, vjust = 1.4,
           label = "COVID-19\n2020 Q2", size = 3.2, colour = "firebrick") +
  scale_colour_manual(
    values = c("Observed" = "grey60", "HP trend" = "#0072B2", "MBH trend" = "#E69F00")
  ) +
  facet_wrap(~country, scales = "free_y") +
  labs(
    title    = "HP vs MBH under a Structural Shock",
    subtitle = "MBH trend (orange) stays smooth;\nHP trend (blue) is pulled down by the COVID crash",
    x = "Year", y = "Log Real GDP", colour = NULL
  ) +
  theme_minimal(base_size = 12) +
  theme(legend.position = "bottom", strip.text = element_text(face = "bold"))
```

---

## 5. The `macrofilter` S3 Class

All four functions return a list of class `c("macrofilter", "list")` with four
core named elements:

| Element | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| `$trend` | numeric | Trend component |
| `$cycle` | numeric | Cyclical component |
| `$data` | numeric | Original series (immutable) |
| `$meta` | named list | Filter method, parameters, temporal identity (`ts_class`, `tsp`, `idx`), compute time |

When a filter is called with `boot_iter > 0`, the object additionally carries
two bootstrap confidence bands (see the *Uncertainty bands* vignette):

| Element | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| `$trend_lower` | numeric | Lower 95% band (`trend - 1.96 * bootstrap sd`) |
| `$trend_upper` | numeric | Upper 95% band (`trend + 1.96 * bootstrap sd`) |

### Printing

```{r s3-print}
mbh_res
```

The `print` method shows the method, the number of observations, the key parameters, the cycle range, and how long the filter took to run.

### Accessing components

```{r s3-access}
# Trend and cycle as plain vectors
head(mbh_res$trend, 8)
head(mbh_res$cycle, 8)

# Verify the fundamental identity: trend + cycle == data
max(abs((mbh_res$trend + mbh_res$cycle) - mbh_res$data))  # should be < 1e-9
```

### Inspecting metadata

```{r s3-meta}
str(mbh_res$meta)
```

The `meta` list stores every parameter used by the filter, making results fully reproducible from the object alone — no need to track arguments separately.

### Plotting cycles side by side

```{r cycle-comparison, fig.height=5}
df_cycle <- data.frame(
  t          = as.numeric(time(gdp)),
  HP_cycle   = as.numeric(hp_res$cycle),
  MBH_cycle  = as.numeric(mbh_res$cycle)
)

ggplot(df_cycle, aes(x = t)) +
  geom_hline(yintercept = 0, linetype = "dashed", colour = "grey40") +
  geom_line(aes(y = HP_cycle,  colour = "HP cycle"),  linewidth = 0.8) +
  geom_line(aes(y = MBH_cycle, colour = "MBH cycle"), linewidth = 0.8) +
  annotate("rect",
           xmin = df_cycle$t[59], xmax = df_cycle$t[63],
           ymin = -Inf, ymax = Inf,
           alpha = 0.12, fill = "firebrick") +
  scale_colour_manual(values = c("HP cycle" = "#0072B2", "MBH cycle" = "#E69F00")) +
  labs(
    title    = "Cyclical Components",
    subtitle = "HP cycle absorbs the shock; MBH cycle faithfully records it",
    x = "Year", y = "Cycle", colour = NULL
  ) +
  theme_minimal(base_size = 12) +
  theme(legend.position = "bottom")
```

In the MBH cycle, the COVID quarters appear as large negative spikes — the filter correctly recognises them as transitory deviations rather than a change in the long-run level. The HP cycle, by contrast, spreads the shock over several surrounding quarters as it tries to reconcile the trend distortion.

---

## References

- Hodrick, R. J., & Prescott, E. C. (1997). Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation. *Journal of Money, Credit and Banking*, 29(1), 1–16.
- Ravn, M. O., & Uhlig, H. (2002). On Adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott Filter for the Frequency of Observations. *Review of Economics and Statistics*, 84(2), 371–376.
- Hamilton, J. D. (2018). Why You Should Never Use the Hodrick-Prescott Filter. *Review of Economics and Statistics*, 100(5), 831–843.
- Phillips, P. C. B., & Shi, Z. (2021). Boosting: Why You Can Use the HP Filter. *International Economic Review*, 62(2), 521–570.